{"id":2467,"date":"2017-12-16T16:12:22","date_gmt":"2017-12-16T10:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/?p=2467"},"modified":"2017-12-16T16:33:52","modified_gmt":"2017-12-16T11:03:52","slug":"ai-the-forthcoming-automotive-revolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/ai-the-forthcoming-automotive-revolution\/","title":{"rendered":"AI & the forthcoming automotive revolution"},"content":{"rendered":"
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At WebSummit 2017 there was a recurring theme \u2014 self-driving cars. Almost every talk I went to \u2014 whether at Centre Stage, SaaS Monster or AutoTech \u2014 mentioned self-driving cars in one way or another.<\/em><\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

The benefits of self-driving cars are enormous:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Increased safety: There will be reduced vehicles collisions caused by human erro<\/li>\n
  • Time saved: People can spend the time they would have spent driving doing something more productive<\/li>\n
  • Congestion: linked self-driving cars will be able to make better use of available roads, and improve fuel efficiency<\/li>\n
  • Insurance cost reduction: without human error, the risk of pay-out is lower<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Self-driving cars have become more prominent in recent years for two reasons:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    1.<\/p>\n

    The Need: towns and cities are reaching transport breaking point, with governments unwilling to spend more on\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 infrastructure.<\/p>\n

    2.<\/p>\n

    The Possibility: ubiquitous computing power, and availability of the cloud makes training AI more widely\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 available than before, sparking innovation and competition.<\/p>\n

    So let\u2019s cut through the WebSummit hype \u2014 where are self-driving cars actually at and who is going to win the race of the self-driving cars?<\/p>\n

    I want to talk about four very different companies that are associated with self-driving cars. I saw three of those companies present their latest tech at WebSummit. The last one was not there, but I did have a recent personal experience with them.<\/p>\n

    Comma.ai<\/h3>\n

    Comma.ai is run by George Hotz (the guy who famously carrier unlocked the iPhone for the first time in 2007). At this presentation at WebSummit, Hotz proclaimed that he doesn\u2019t understand car companies today, and that he wants to be the one to \u201csolve\u201d self-driving cars.<\/p>\n

    His company has built a neat set of tools that build on each other to help solve the problem:<\/strong><\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Chffr:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    a free dash-cam app for iOS and Android. Data recorded by the app is uploaded to Comma.ai and used for AI training<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Panda:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    a piece of hardware, a universal interface for cars that on one side plugs into the cars ODB-II diagnostic port, and on the other presents USB & Wi-Fi. It talks to Chffr to enrich the data that is uploaded to Comma.ai<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    OpenPilot:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    the crown-jewel of open-source software that can drive a car<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    EON:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    another piece of hardware for mounting a device (running OpenPilot) in the correct position, and provides adequate power & cooling<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    The theory is great, but the numbers are not so. Chffr has clocked up 4.3 million km of data, and OpenPilot has around 150 active users \u2014 numbers that are completely dwarfed by the competition.<\/p>\n

    Nonetheless, Hotz confidently takes a thinly veiled shot at Waymo (Google\u2019s self driving spin-off company, that I\u2019ll talk about next) accusing them of just sitting around and talking about self-driving cars, and releasing videos of their engineers being the wheel of their self-driving prototypes, rather than real-world users.<\/p>\n

    He also predicts that, one day, car manufacturers will be coming to him wanting to put OpenPilot in their cars, in much the same way that many mobile phone hardware manufacturers choose Android today.<\/p>\n

    Waymo<\/h3>\n

    On the striking Centre Stage at WebSummit, Waymo put out an impressive update on their efforts for driving autonomy.<\/p>\n

    John Krafcik (Waymo CEO) announced that Waymo are shooting for full level 5 autonomy, where a steering wheel is\u00a0optional<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 they aren\u2019t just pursuing the\u00a0idea<\/em>\u00a0of building up to level 5 like much of the competition. Currently, OpenPilot & Tesla\u2019s AutoPilot are level 2 systems (described as a \u201chands off\u201d system, where the driver must be prepared to intervene immediately at any time).<\/p>\n

    Audi\u2019s 2019 version of the A8 will be available with the world\u2019s first level 3 system (described as \u201ceyes-off\u201d \u2014 the driver can fully engage in other tasks, and the car should be able to respond to situations that require an immediate response). Audi\u2019s system is only for traffic jams while travelling less than 37mph, however, and it is currently traversing the government approval minefield.<\/p>\n

    Waymo\u2019s strategy of aiming for full level 5 seems ambitious, but then they chose this moment to announce that they will be starting a completely driverless point-to-point taxi service in Phoenix, Arizona. Very impressive.<\/p>\n

    They also demonstrated a well thought through car to passenger interface that distils the world around the car to an easy to understand map, so that a passenger can always (at a glance) answer the question \u201cwhy is the car doing what it\u2019s doing right now?”<\/p>\n

    This all sounds great, so where is the problem? It\u2019s the hardware.<\/p>\n

    Firstly, Waymo are using state-of-the-art LIDAR to 3D map the world around the car in real time. A LIDAR system is expensive \u2014 although Waymo have reported heavily in reducing the cost significantly.<\/p>\n

    Secondly, the hardware in use is not very well integrated in the car. Sensors jut out in funny places making the car just look ugly.<\/p>\n

    I\u2019m sure these problems will be overcome \u2014 after all, this company is backed by Google, who have enormous resources available to them, and a track record of innovation \u2014 but that won\u2019t come quickly.<\/p>\n

    Intel<\/h3>\n
    <\/div>\n

    Intel were on the same impressive Centre Stage as Waymo at this year\u2019s WebSummit, shortly after them, on the same day.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    Unfortunately, what they had to show was not so impressive.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    The Intel CEO, Brian Krzanich, announced that self-driving cars are a few years away. Ooops. Did Krzanich not watch the Waymo presentation an hour or so beforehand?<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    One of Intel\u2019s self-driving cars appeared on stage. Brian spends too long telling us about all the \u201camazing sensors\u201d that it has on board. But alas, Intel\u2019s self-driving car was being driven by a human. (Krzanich said \u201cas the car drives off now\u201d as the on-board human driver clearly took control of the vehicle and\u00a0manoeuvred it cautiously off stage).<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    They really didn\u2019t look like they knew what was going on, and were totally outclassed by Waymo.<\/p>\n

    To make things ever-so-slightly worse, they then demonstrated \u201cAI on a USB stick\u201d. I felt it insulted the mostly techie audience by insinuating that it\u2019s possible to make a drone \u201cintelligent\u201d by just plugging the stick in.<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n

    And then ensued possibly the worst demo of the WebSummit conference.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    A poor Intel employee held in their hands a non-flying drone (with the magic AI USB stick plugged into it) over a TV screen (laid on a table) playing a video of a shark swimming in the sea. They then claimed that the drone had \u201cspotted\u201d the shark, and brought\u00a0another<\/em>\u00a0(flying, this time) drone onto the stage and attempted to drop a bean bag on the screen with the shark\u2026<\/p>\n

    The idea was to simulate a drone that could be used by lifeguards or search & rescue to monitor near-shore waters, and drop life-saving buoyancy aids to stranded individuals.<\/p>\n

    The problem was, they missed the screen (with shark on) entirely.<\/p>\n

    Maybe they would\u2019ve been better using the drone to drop their car in the sea.<\/p>\n

    Tesla<\/h3>\n
    <\/div>\n

    Tesla were not present at WebSummit. Why? I\u2019ll give you my opinion later.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    This is the company that I have had a personal experience with \u2014 I test drove a Tesla Model S in the Spring of 2016.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    It was like I was, briefly, living in the future.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    The car sped up, slowed down, and steered around corners, all on its own accord. It even parked itself at a service station. OK, I needed to be on hand to supervise, be available to provide \u201cimmediate intervention\u201d, but this was over a year ago.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    Since then, Tesla has released updates & improvements (roughly) every month. This is technology that consumers can buy today \u2014 this isn\u2019t a promised technology, or only available in open-source warranty-free format. It isn\u2019t only available on new 2019 model cars (like Audi) \u2014 it\u2019s been around for long enough that there is an active second-hand market for Model S with this technology.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    And the story for the future is good too. Around a year ago Tesla said they had 1.3 billion miles of data, presumably available to train their self-driving systems. Going by Comma.ai stats from last week, they have available to them less than 0.25 per cent of that.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    But it\u2019s not just the quantity \u2014 it\u2019s the quality of that data too.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    This isn\u2019t just 1.3 billion miles of video of someone driving, it\u2019s accompanied with data on human corrections i.e. good feedback on the quality of the decisions that the current software is making. From what I can tell, there is no one else that has the quantity and quality of training data that Tesla has.<\/p>\n

    Lastly, there is the integration \u2014 Tesla develop all the hardware and software in-house, so it works together impeccably well. Who were the last to nail hardware & software integration? Apple. And how have they done?<\/p>\n

    Who wins?<\/h3>\n
    \n
    Advertisement<\/div>\n
    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    When it comes down to it, Machine Learning (or AI) is a pretty simple process.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    When creating (or “training”) an AI system, you need two inputs. Data, and expected behaviour. The processing of training takes these two inputs, and \u201clearns\u201d to trigger the expected behaviour when the correct data patterns emerge \u2014 the output is a model.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    The model is then used to make decisions. The quality and quantity of the inputs to the training are paramount to creating a good working model.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    So, who will win self-driving cars? It must be Tesla.<\/p>\n

    <\/div>\n

    Why? Because, put simply, they have the quality (real immediate feedback from real people \u2014 actual corrective behaviour from real humans when their system is active) and quantity (from the hundreds of thousands of cars they have currently on the road) of data to make them unstoppable.<\/p>\n

    Comma.ai have the quality, but only a very limited quantity. Waymo have the quality \u2014 their quantity is better than Comma.ai, although limited to their own staff \u2014 but they are playing a risky long game, where only level 5 automation will do. And Intel\u2026 well yes, or maybe just no.<\/p>\n

    And why weren\u2019t Tesla at WebSummit this year? My opinion \u2014 they didn\u2019t need to be \u2014 they have nothing to prove.<\/p>\n

    \n

    Author –\u00a0\u00a0Chris Priest\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

    Courtesy of ITProPortal<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    At WebSummit 2017 there was a recurring theme \u2014 self-driving cars. Almost every talk I went to \u2014 whether at Centre Stage, SaaS Monster or AutoTech \u2014 mentioned self-driving cars in one way or another.   The benefits of self-driving cars are enormous: Increased safety: There will be reduced vehicles collisions caused by human erro <\/p>\n

    Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2468,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"rank_math_lock_modified_date":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[126],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-machine-learning-ai"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2467"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2467"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2467\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2480,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2467\/revisions\/2480"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.autofacets.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}